Introduction:
Election fever is at its peak now in Tamil Nadu. There are lots of opinion polls and surveys conducted by many media. We are getting speculations that those opinion polls are paid one.
Well, it may or may not be. In this post, we will see the vote percentage of major parties in Tamil Nadu at the last elections, which will give fair idea about how this election is going to be. Because, elections in Tamil Nadu is purely on arithmetic and anti incumbency factor.
Vote percentage in 2011 TN:
In 2011 Tamil Nadu assembly election, AiAdmk front sweeped the poll and won 203 seats (and Aiadmk alone won 150 seats).
| Party |
Total Number of Vote |
Vote % |
| Aiadmk |
14150289 |
38.40% |
| DMK |
8249991 |
22.40% |
| DMDK |
2903828 |
7.90% |
| INC |
3426432 |
9.30% |
| PMK |
1927783 |
5.20% |
|
|
|
|
Polled |
Turn Out |
| Male Voters |
18381236 |
77.71% |
| Female Voters |
18371744 |
78.54% |
| Total Voters |
36753114 |
78.12% |
Analysis:
Nearly 78% of votes were polled and it is 50:50 ratio votes of Male:Female. Admk got nearly 1.4 crore votes and its alliance Dmdk got 29 lakh votes.
Dmk managed to gain 82 lakh votes and its alliance INC got only 34 lakh votes. Dmk had alliance with INC, PMK, and VC. Due to the heavy anti incumbency factor, they failed to won the election.
Vote Percentage in 2014 TN:
In spite of Modi wave in the whole India, this is the only state where BJP got only 1 seat out of 39 seats and its alliance PMK got one more seat. Out of 39 seats, Aiadmk won 37 seats with the vote percentage of 44 (i.e. vote of 1.8 crore).
In that election, DMK suffered heavy loss and unable to win a single seat.
| Party |
Total Number of Vote |
Vote % |
| Aiadmk |
17983168 |
44.30% |
| DMK |
10887347 |
26.80% |
| NDA (Dmdk,BJP,Mdmk,PMK) |
7523829 |
18.50% |
| INC |
1751123 |
4.30% |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Polled |
Turn Out |
| Total Voters |
39599601 |
73.67% |
Analysis:
It is believed that two factors influenced the win of Aiadmk. One is Multi-corner contest and other is people welfare schemes by State Government. Dmk was moved out of INC and stated that they realized bitterness of INC. Dmk with the support of VC and some other minor parties, they faced the election. They able to gain only 27% of vote (by that alliance). INC got only 4.3% votes.
BJP team (Dmdk+Mdmk+PMK) able to gain only 18.5% of vote.
Predication of 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly Election:
It is very clear from our analysis that Aiadmk is single largest party in the state of Tamil Nadu. And Dmk is the second largest party in the state. We did a prediction analysis with all this data and added current situation of the state (like election manifesto and freebies).
It is clear that Aiadmk going to get 48% of vote (+ or - 3%). DMK is going to get 23% of vote (+ or - 3%).
DMK and INC alliance made up a social media negative image via funny memes and reality, they were sharing the table for Srilankan Tamils genocide. Now INC is a weaker party in Tamil Nadu. Half of its party is with GK Vasan (they are in PWF- People welfare front).
Same equation of 2014 is now rehashed in to new equation. Instead of INC, now BJP is alone. PMK is also standing alone. Instead of NDA (BJP team), we got PWF with Dmdk, Mdmk, VC and communist parties. In 2014, communist parties were faced the election alone, but this time PMK was out and communist parties were in.
Dmk missed out VC this time and added weak INC in. More or less, it is a same equation like last time. The only unchanged side is Aiadmk. Lets see our prediction is right or wrong on may 19.
